In line with broad market expectations, including ours, the European Central Bank has not decided to increase the level of interest rates in Euroland today. The main rate – refinancing – will therefore still be 1.25 percent.
Also, according to forecasts, during the press conference after the meeting of the head of the ECB the statement was made about the “increased vigilance” of the Bank towards inflation, and this in the language of this institution means that the cost of money in the euro area will go up again and again second this year, most likely already in July.
Increasing loan installments in euros
The lack of an interest rate increase in Euroland does not mean, however, that those Poles who pay installments of mortgage loans denominated in a common currency can sleep peacefully. The interest rate on their liabilities in banks depends only indirectly on the main refinancing rate set by the ECB, and directly on the evolution of the 3-month Euribor rate.
Unfortunately for borrowers, this rate, set every day before the ECB decision, has risen to 1.464%, the highest since April 2009. Considering the fact that the ECB has stated today “increased vigilance” regarding inflation and thus the ECB’s monetary policy is expected to tighten already in July, it should be presumed that 3-month Euribor will continue to be in an upward trend.
The average interest rate on 3-month term loans
The 3-month Euribor rate, illustrating the average interest rate on 3-month term loans on the interbank market in Euroland, reached its post-crisis minimum of 0.6340% at exactly the end of the first quarter of last year. Since then, it has been consistently rising, as market conditions have improved.
At present, it is expected that in the realities of the continued strong economic growth of Euroland and clearly deviating from the inflation target (+ 2.7% y / y initially in May and + 2.8% y / y in April, when it grew the strongest since October 2008). ) The European Central Bank will decide on further increases in the cost of money, after the beginning of April this year. increased interest rates in the euro area for the first time since July 2008.
Increasingly, since the end of the first quarter of last year, credit installments expressed in euros could be offset by the strengthening of the zloty, but they were not, because between the end of the first quarter of 2010 and June 9 this year, our currency not only did not strengthen to the euro, but even slightly weakened. While at the close of the session on March 31 last year, the EUR / USD exchange rate was 3.8555, so today at 14:50 it was 2.5% higher and 3.9530 higher.
Home loans in franc in Poland
- According to the data of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, at the end of April this year. the value of housing loans granted in the European currency was USD 20.883 billion, and its share in the value of all housing loans granted was 7.72%.
- In turn, according to the Polish Bank Association, in Q1 this year the share of the value of newly granted housing loans in the European currency in the value of all newly granted housing loans was equal to 13.2% and lower than 2010 Q4, when it was 17.3%. As a reminder, in the years 2010, 2009 and 2008, in the period January-March it was respectively: 18.3%, 3.8% and 0.7%.